NDA lost even after winning, India won even after losing, these are the results of Lok Sabha elections

What does this mandate mean?

This time after the Lok Sabha elections, people are discussing that both the ruling party and the opposition are happy with this result. Some people are saying that the NDA is happy because it has come to power for the third time but why is the opposition happy? The biggest reason for the opposition to be happy is that in the Narendra Modi wave, the opposition was slowly ending and breaking up. The opposition was not even in a position to fight its battle. But today the opposition is in such a position that it can fight its battle even while being in the opposition. The defeat of the ruling party is that the state from which it got the maximum number of seats in the last election was Uttar Pradesh but it suffered a crushing defeat there. The BJP had set a big target of 400 seats but it could not even get as many seats as it got in the last Lok Sabha elections. The victory of the ruling party is in the sense that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is making a hat-trick. After Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, he will be the second leader who has become Prime Minister for the third consecutive time.

Why did this happen?

• The trump card of Ram Mandir did not work!

On January 22, on the day of consecration of Ram Mandir, a different atmosphere was seen in the country. There was an atmosphere of celebration not only in UP but in the whole country. The day was also big because the dream of building Ram Mandir was coming true. With the enthusiasm seen that day, BJP tried to create a strong wave in the whole country including UP. But gradually this issue faded among the public and BJP could not understand it. BJP was considering Ram Mandir as its trump card which did not work. The biggest example of this is Samajwadi Party getting 37 seats in UP and BJP's crushing defeat in Awadh region. Generally, the discussion among the people was that Ram Mandir has been built but apart from this there are other issues too.

• Some statements scared the backward people

During the election campaign, one or two BJP leaders made statements that the Constitution can be changed. However, later they or the party distanced themselves from those statements. But the alliance leaders took full advantage of this. During his election campaign, Rahul Gandhi was seen invoking the Constitution in public meetings. He kept repeating again and again that we are fighting to save the Constitution. In the last few years, BJP was successful in luring the backward vote bank, but this time the backward class did not support the BJP.

RSS and BJP have always been close friends, but this time in the Lok Sabha elections, both kept a distance. Rather, let's say that BJP did not ask for cooperation from RSS. RSS pracharaks and volunteers engaged in social and contact work among the common people across the country were not seen during the election process. Earlier in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections, such inactivity of RSS volunteers was seen, due to which BJP had to be out of power despite the slogan of India Shining. BJP National President JP Nadda had indicated in his statement that BJP does not need anyone.

• BSP openly entered the fray

In the last decade, BSP has weakened itself a lot. BSP has been accused of working as BJP's B team. This time BSP gave priority to Muslim candidates in ticket distribution so that a dent could be made in the vote bank of Bharat Gathbandhan, but Dalit class and Muslim voters considered voting for BSP a waste of vote. In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BSP's vote percentage fell to 2.07% which was 3.67% in 2019. BSP's vote percentage decreased by 1.6% and seats became zero.

• The opposition was in a do or die situation

In this Lok Sabha election, it was a do or die situation for the opposition because ED and CBI were constantly raiding opposition leaders. The last 5 years have been very difficult for opposition leaders. Suspension of about 150 MPs from the House, Arvind Kejriwal and Hemant Soren going to jail on corruption charges, expulsion of Rahul Gandhi from the Lok Sabha were important decisions against the opposition. Due to these developments, the opposition put in all its efforts in this election. Its effect was also seen in the election results.

The Bharatiya Janata Party has been vocal about caste census from the very beginning. The politics of caste census in Bihar was started by Tejashwi and Nitish Kumar. Caste census was conducted in Bihar. After this, both Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi played this card aggressively. On this pretext, they tried to woo the OBCs. They also got success in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. However, in the midst of the elections, Narendra Modi definitely tried to corner the opposition on the issue of caste census. He said that the opposition wants to divide the reservation of backward classes among Muslims, but somewhere the opposition got the benefit of constantly sticking to this issue.

• 'Bharat Jodo' Yatra changed the image of Rahul Gandhi

Congress's 'Bharat Jodo' Yatra completely changed Rahul Gandhi's image. Rahul Gandhi's political credibility increased and the confidence of Congress workers returned. During this journey, he developed an understanding of the local issues of different areas of the country. During this journey, he met thousands of farmers, laborers, women, youth and common people. He understood their issues like inflation and unemployment and was successful in convincing the people in his public meetings. Congress, which won 52 seats in the last Lok Sabha elections, won 99 seats this time.

• The opposition was successful in making inflation and unemployment an issue

The issue of unemployment and inflation was among the people but it was pushed to the margins. On the pretext of Ram Mandir, BJP tried to fight this election on the agenda of Hindutva. The opposition remained adamant on the issue of unemployment and inflation. But BJP could not give any answer to this. Every time it used to happen that BJP used to prepare the pitch of Hindutva in the election field and the opposition had to play on this pitch even if it did not want to. This time the INDIA alliance prepared the election pitch of unemployment and inflation.

• Anger of Rajput and Jat community

The effect of the Rajput and Jat community's displeasure with BJP was also seen in the election results. Congress and other regional opposition parties got direct benefit of this displeasure. In Rajasthan, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and other states, Congress and regional parties took advantage of the displeasure of these communities and created an atmosphere in their favor. Despite knowing everything, BJP kept ignoring it. In UP, BJP ignored the Rajput community in ticket distribution, while there was also a situation of discontent on the issue of farmers' movement and Jat reservation.

What will happen next?

• Strong role of opposition

The election results have given a clear message that this time the opposition will be in a strong role. The effect of this strength will be that the opposition will be more aggressive both inside and outside the House. For the first time in 10 years, the Leader of the Opposition will get a place in the House. The Leader of the Opposition has the status and protocol of a cabinet minister. He will have a role in all major decisions. At the same time, the number of opposition members is more, so the opposition will be able to speak more openly on any wrong decision.

• Changes in the proceedings of Parliament

Changes can be seen in the proceedings of Parliament. BJP will have to take the opinion of other alliance partners in every proceeding of Parliament. This will also bring to the media what is going on within the government and through this the news will also reach the common people. Till now most of the permanent committees of the Parliament House remained inactive, which are called mini parliament. But now they can come into a strong and active role. Earlier BJP was in majority on its own, so even other parties not in the alliance used to support it in Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha. Earlier many bills used to be passed in the House without any discussion, but now its possibility seems less.

• Bills included in BJP's agenda will be postponed

Prime Minister Narendra Modi is leading a coalition government for the first time in his political career. Earlier it used to happen that if any law came in the House, its passing was almost certain, but now this will not happen. BJP has been continuously demanding the implementation of Uniform Civil Code in the country. At the same time, bills like Population Control Law and One Nation One Election are also in the priority of BJP. But in the coming time it will be difficult to bring such a bill in the House because it does not seem that the coalition partners will agree on it.

• What will happen to the Agniveer scheme?

All opposition leaders including Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamta Banerjee and Tejashwi Yadav had aggressively raised the issue of Agniveer Yojana in their public meetings. Its effect was also seen in the election results. Nitish Kumar is a partner in the NDA alliance. Before the formation of the government, JDU spokesperson KC Tyagi had said that the Agniveer scheme for recruitment in the army should be reviewed. In such a situation, there is full hope that the government will reconsider it or make changes in it.

• Credibility of agencies will increase

In the last few years, agencies like ED and CBI have been under question because most of the action taken by them has been against opposition leaders. In a coalition government, the credibility of these agencies will be less questioned because the opposition and the coalition partners of the ruling party will also have a big role in the selection of the head of these agencies.

• The credibility of EVMs will increase

Questions have been raised about EVM in the last decade. Whenever BJP came to power with a huge majority in the Centre or any state, the opposition raised the issue of EVM prominently. The issue of EVM reached such an extent that the Election Commission had to install VV Pad to ensure its reliability. It was also discussed in Parliament. This matter reached the Supreme Court. But the mandate has increased the credibility of EVM.

• The era of alliances is back

Even though BJP is confident of running the government smoothly for 5 years, it will be dependent on parties like JDU and TDP. BJP ran the government with a clear majority for 10 years, but now the era of coalition government has returned. This will increase the role and importance of regional parties in important decisions of the country.

• Tough decisions can create obstacles

The government remained adamant on tough decisions like demonetization and agriculture bill. The farmers' agitation continued for a long time. The government also remained silent on the Manipur incident. But in the coming times, the government will have to listen to everyone, whether it is the opposition or the allies. The discontent that had grown among the people against the central government will also reduce.