In 2014, an average of 8 exit polls had predicted that the BJP-led NDA would win 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA would win 105 seats. The exit polls failed to predict the extent of the 'Modi wave' that year and the NDA got 336 seats and the UPA a mere 60 seats. Of these, the BJP got 282 and the Congress 44.
Exit polls vs actual results in 2014
In 2014, most exit polls predicted the BJP-led NDA coming to power, but failed to accurately predict the landslide victory that followed. Here is a breakdown of how accurate the exit polls were –
Forecast for NDA
- India Today-Cicero: NDA is projected to get 272 seats
- News 24 Chanakya: 340 seats
- CNN-IBN-CSDS: 280 seats
- Times Now Org: 249 seats
- ABP News-Nielsen: 274 seats
- NDTV-Hansa Research: 279 seats
Forecast on UPA
- India Today-Cicero: UPA projected to get 115 seats
- News 24 Chanakya: 101 seats
- CNN-IBN-CSDS: 97 seats
- Times Now Org: 148 seats
- ABP News-Nielsen: 97 seats
- NDTV-Hansa Research: 103 seats
Actual Results
- NDA: 336 seats; BJP won 282 seats
- UPA: 60 seats; Congress got only 44 seats
In 2019, the average of 13 exit polls gave 306 seats to the NDA and 120 to the UPA. This again underestimated the performance of the NDA, which won a total of 353 seats. The UPA got 93 seats. Of these, the BJP won 303 and the Congress 52.
Exit polls vs actual results in 2019
Forecast for NDA
- India Today-Axis: 339-365 seats
- News 24 Today Chanakya: 350 seats
- News18-Ipsos: 336 seats
- Times Now VMR: 306 seats
- India TV-CNX: 300 seats
- Sudarshan News: 305 seats
Forecast for the UPA
- India Today-Axis: 77-108 seats
- News 24 Today Chanakya: 95 seats
- News18-Ipsos: 82 seats
- Times Now VMR: 132 seats
- India TV-CNX: 120 seats
- Sudarshan News: 124 seats
Actual Results
- NDA: Won 352 seats. BJP alone got 303 seats.
- UPA: Won 91 seats. Congress got 52 seats.
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