Will your EMI increase or decrease? RBI's decision is coming on 5th April, know from experts

Also, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of RBI, which takes decisions on the policy rate, can take into consideration the stance of central banks of some developed countries like America and Britain. These central banks are clearly adopting a 'watch and wait' approach regarding policy rate cuts. Switzerland is the first major economy among developed countries to cut the policy rate. At the same time, Japan, the world's third largest economy, has ended the situation of negative interest rates after 8 years.

Also read- Finance Minister claims, India's economy is on the right track, GDP growth in March quarter will be 8 percent

RBI MPC meeting from 3rd April
The three-day meeting of the MPC chaired by Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das will begin on April 3. The monetary policy review will be announced on April 5. This will be the first monetary policy review for the financial year 2024-25.

There will be 6 meetings of MPC in the financial year 2024-25
There will be 6 meetings of MPC in the financial year starting from April 1, 2024. RBI last increased the repo rate to 6.5 percent in February 2023. After that, it has been kept unchanged in 6 consecutive bi-monthly monetary policy reviews.

RBI can keep the policy rate unchanged
Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist, Bank of Baroda, said, “Inflation is still in the range of 5 percent and there is a possibility of future shock on the food inflation front, in view of this, MPC will maintain status quo on the policy rate and stance this time too.” Can keep.

Economic growth in FY24 was better than expected
He said that there may be revision in GDP estimates. Everyone will be eagerly watching this. Sabnavis said, “Economic growth in the financial year 2023-24 has been much better than expected and hence the central bank will have less concerns in this matter and will continue to focus more on bringing inflation in line with the target.”

Economic growth rate was 8.4 percent in December quarter
The country's economic growth rate stood at 8.4 percent in the December quarter of the financial year 2023-24. The National Statistical Office (NSO) has revised the GDP growth estimates for the first and second quarters to 8.2 percent and 8.1 percent respectively, which were earlier 7.8 percent and 7.6 percent.

No change in policy rate likely
ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair said that with NS increasing the GDP growth estimates for the first and second quarters of 2023-24, the growth rate is expected to be more than 8 percent for 3 consecutive quarters and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain above 8 percent in February. With GDP being at 5.1 per cent, there is no possibility of change in the policy rate and stance in the upcoming monetary policy review.

Policy rate cut expected by October this year
Nair said that ICRA believes that the stance at the policy level is unlikely to change before August 2024. By that time the situation regarding monsoon will be clear. Along with this, the stance of the American Central Bank regarding economic growth and policy rates will also become clear. Considering all this, the policy rate cut is expected to happen by October this year. This situation will happen when there is no problem at the level of economic growth.

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Tags: Inflation, RBI, Rbi policy, Reserve bank of india