Think carefully this time…why does the BJP need to strike a balance with introspection?

Opinion polls conducted just before the election campaign had predicted that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance would win the most seats. However, it may fall short of its target of over 400. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's approval rating was 74 per cent. Exit polls conducted after the polling also gave the NDA 400 seats. Then how did the BJP get only 240 seats? How did the BJP-led NDA alliance reach a slender majority with the support of Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu? The BJP must reflect on this and also balance it. Above all, it must learn how damaging it is to suppress dissent in the media.

The truth came out in the secret ballot

Taking media criticism is never pleasant, but it does expose the realities that the ‘godi media’ can hide. This fear fosters false praise and the illusion of universal support, while dissenters and critics remain silent, believing that discretion is the better part of valour. The more fear there is, the more deceptive public opinion and popularity polls will be. The truth comes out only in secret ballots.

meaning of election results

Elections can make even the most seasoned politicians lose their sheen. Recently, Modi said in a TV interview: 'I am sure that 'Paramatma' (God) has sent me for some purpose, he does not reveal his cards, he simply hires me.' These results show Modi as just another politician, undoubtedly a very talented and successful one, but mortal nonetheless. Liberal jubilation notwithstanding, the conclusion is that the BJP is here for five years, and has a chance to win another five years in 2029. But we will no longer get simultaneous elections at the Centre and in the states. We will not be able to remove references to secularism from the Constitution. We will not get a Hindu state. Gone are the days when the government could pass bills in Parliament with minimal or no debate.

The strength of the opposition has doubled

The strength of the opposition has now doubled. NDA allies who felt slighted earlier will be more vocal this time and Modi will have to step into new territory and play a new role as a negotiator. Both Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu have left the BJP before. They are opportunists, not loyal friends. But there is no major reason for any of them to leave Modi in the near future.

Vote against whom?

Voters did not vote for communal polarisation or an 'autocratic' Modi. But what did they actually vote against? Some analysts attribute this to unemployment, agrarian distress, rising inequality (the so-called K-shaped recovery) and backlash against Hindutva. Such pan-India explanations fail scrutiny because the trend varies so widely across states.

Why did BJP lose Faizabad?

The BJP made a near clean sweep in Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, Assam and Odisha. This is why Naveen Patnaik's 25-year-old rule in Odisha came to an end. Yet the BJP performed very poorly in UP and also suffered serious setbacks in Rajasthan, Haryana and West Bengal. The construction of the Ram temple in Ayodhya was the biggest media event of the year, attracting record viewership. But it seems that millions of people did not see it as an election issue. The temple attracted tourists, but not voters. The BJP also lost the Faizabad seat, in which Ayodhya is located.

What happened to BJP in UP-Haryana-Rajasthan?

Can anyone claim that employment and K-shaped recovery were not problems in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Himachal Pradesh or Uttarakhand, but there were serious problems in UP, Haryana and Rajasthan? The BJP's victories and losses in various states were clearly due to very local issues, not any pan-India issue. In Uttar Pradesh, journalists claim that the SP and Congress managed to create a good caste equation.

Hopes rise for BJP in Tamil Nadu

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee's TMC managed to win despite corruption allegations and the Sandeshkhali controversy. In Andhra Pradesh, BJP allies Chandrababu Naidu and Pawan Kalyan won a landslide victory, playing a key role in the BJP's victory. In Tamil Nadu, the BJP failed to convert its strong effort into electoral success, but a ray of hope came in the form of 11.3 percent vote share. In Haryana, the BJP-led government had already lost its majority due to defections and its poor performance in the Lok Sabha was already anticipated.