The situation is not like 2004… Will the exit polls prove right or wrong?

Ananya Shroff
6 Min Read

Rahul Verma: The exit poll figures released on the 1st are shocking. Everyone had said in their pre-poll survey that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is winning the elections comfortably. But no one had thought that their seats would increase so much. Especially during the elections, many such things came to light that there is a close contest in many places! It was said that BJP will not get even 272 easily! In this sense, these are shocking figures.More seats than before: The question arises whether things will change when the actual results come on June 4? I believe no. The figures given at the national level in most exit polls are almost the same. All have said that BJP can easily go above 320 and NDA above 370-375. At the same time, Congress's seats will increase only marginally. Since all the polls are similar, it is very difficult for the results to be contrary to this. At the most, 10-15 seats can change here and there, but now it should be assumed that BJP is coming to power with an absolute majority, and with more seats and votes than 2019.

Profit and Loss The second big thing we saw in the exit polls is that BJP is performing the same way in its main states as it did in 2014-2019. These states are Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Whatever little loss it will suffer, it may happen in Haryana, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Jharkhand and Bihar. You can also add Assam and North East to this series. But this loss will be very less.

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unimaginable BJP is going to get a big lead in almost all the states on the coast of the Bay of Bengal. I think even BJP might not have imagined such a big lead. In Bengal, it was believed that perhaps two-four seats will increase and it can achieve a big victory there. The same is happening in Odisha-Telangana. In Andhra, BJP is winning a lot of seats by forming an alliance with TDP. If the exit polls turn out to be correct, then this will be the first time when BJP will have at least one MP in every big state of the country.

India's position According to the exit polls, Congress has maintained its hold in Kerala and Punjab. It has gained some lead in Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Haryana and Rajasthan. But the special thing is that there has been no significant improvement in the performance of Congress. The biggest setback is felt by Aam Aadmi Party, which may not have any seat or it may get one or two seats from Punjab. Bharat Rashtra Samiti is also facing a setback in Telangana. Biju Janata Dal in Odisha and Trinamool Congress in West Bengal are facing a setback.

Opposition's strategy : This situation also arose because perhaps the strategy that the opposition was making during the elections did not succeed. The opposition wasted the time from September 2023 to February 2024 in talks about alliance, who is going out, who will contest on how many seats. Ultimately they are having to bear the brunt of it.

three things If what was shown in the exit polls on June 1 comes true on June 4, it will be a big change for Indian politics. The first change started from 2014. In which BJP, which was earlier a party of only the North-West, reached the North-Eastern states in 2019 and in 2024 it expanded its scope. It also went to the states adjoining the Bay of Bengal and the South. Second, when the BJP government led by Prime Minister Modi is coming back for the third consecutive time, it is increasing its vote and seat share every time.

Chanakya Lok Sabha Chunav Exit Poll 2024: Record is close to being broken… BJP is surprising in not one or two but many states, see the results of the exit poll
History will be made: This is a very unique thing. This has never happened before in India. Nehru ji also won three times but his party was not expanding. The same thing happened with Indira ji. Thirdly, if these results are correct then difficulties will increase for the opposition in the coming times. This does not mean that there will not be a tough fight at the level of assembly elections and BJP will win easily. But the opposition's dream of challenging BJP at the national level has now been postponed for five years. (The author is a political analyst and fellow at CPR)

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