Lok Sabha results changed the political wind in Bihar and Modi made a big move, what will happen to Tejaswi?

BJP is laying a trap to trap Tejashwi in Bihar

The inclusion of NDA allies in the central government shows that the BJP is focusing on political mobilisation for the upcoming Bihar assembly elections. One of its key strategies is to woo the Extremely Backward Class (EBC) and Dalit votes to corner the RJD and its leader Tejashwi Yadav. The importance of EBC votes has increased after the Bihar government's caste survey revealed that 63% of the state's population is OBC. EBCs are part of this category. When Dalits and Adivasis are added, the figure reaches 85%. This strengthens the narrative of 85 vs 15 i.e. backward vs forward, which has been an important aspect of Bihar's caste politics since the 1980s.

A new camp is being formed in Bihar

The importance of backward caste politics has increased in post-Mandal politics. Lalu Prasad Yadav's son Tejashwi Yadav bet on non-Yadav OBCs, especially the Kushwaha community. He gave the formula of MY BAAP (Muslim Yadav, Bahujan, Adivasi, half population-women, backward) in the Lok Sabha elections. In the election, Tejashwi's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) had an alliance with Mukesh Sahni's Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP). Sahni represents the Nishad community, which includes about 22 castes associated with river-related business. Raj Bhushan Chaudhary, BJP MP from Muzaffarpur, was originally a member of Sahni's VIP, who lost the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Sahni's rise in Bihar's electoral landscape shows that there is a chance for new leaders within the Nishad community. Sahni said, 'We are making others leaders by voting, now we will make our people leaders and increase the power of our vote.'

Who is the new leader of EBC castes?

Leadership has been a persistent challenge for many EBC castes, leading to the formation of small caste-based parties in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The BJP has garnered a large share of the vote bank of many EBC communities by leveraging the symbols of Hindutva politics. However, the forward versus backward narrative from the caste census has seen the EBC vote in Bihar swing back to the RJD-led Mahagathbandhan.

Nitish started EBC politics

Nitish Kumar has retained his influence over EBC votes through welfare schemes and development policies. However, his unstable coalitions and declining personal appeal have raised doubts over whether he will remain in power in the future. The low vote share of the JDU despite its presence shows that Nitish Kumar's personal popularity will face tough scrutiny in the 2025 assembly elections.

What will happen in the 2025 assembly elections?

The inclusion of extremely backward class and Dalit leaders in the Modi government is a strategic move keeping in mind the 2025 Bihar assembly elections. By making leaders from these communities Union ministers, the BJP is setting the stage for the upcoming state elections. The BJP may also field Chirag Paswan against Tejashwi Yadav in Bihar.

Chirag is seen as a progressive young leader. His appeal in the Paswan community and his wide public support can pose a threat to the growing popularity of Tejashwi Yadav. Tejashwi Yadav does not want to let his image be that of a leader of the Yadavs. For this, he has coined the formula of Mai-Baap.
The results of the Lok Sabha elections are clearly indicating that Bihar is waiting for new leadership. The upcoming 2025 assembly elections will be very interesting in the sense whether any leader will be able to fulfill this wait.