Why was PM Modi invited to the SCO meeting, does Pakistan want to improve relations or is this just a formality?

India had also sent an invitation and Zardari had come to Goa

India had also sent an invitation to former Pakistan Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari for the Foreign Ministers' meeting to be held in Goa in 2023. The invitation received by Modi from Pakistan is also a formality in accordance with this multilateral framework of the SCO. This is the reason why despite sending the invitation, Pakistan is not expecting PM Modi's presence in the SCO meeting. Pakistan's apprehension is not only due to its tense relations with India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made it his tradition to attend the SCO Heads of State Council summit instead of the meetings of heads of government.
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar attends the Heads of Government meetings.

Modi has his own tradition for SCO

Modi has been a regular attendee of the SCO Heads of State Summit, though he could not attend the summit held in Kazakhstan earlier this year due to a Parliament session. Nevertheless, he assured Kazakhstan President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of India's support for the summit, reflecting India's commitment to this security-focused alliance. The bloc comprises Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as well as China, Russia and Iran.

SCO membership symbolises strategic autonomy

India has tried to play an active role in the organisation since joining the SCO as an observer in 2005 and gaining full membership along with Pakistan in 2017. This participation is especially important for India in the backdrop of the US's rapid withdrawal from Afghanistan. India wants to exercise its strategic autonomy through its participation in both the Quad and the SCO. Moreover, the SCO charter prohibits discussion on bilateral matters such as Jammu and Kashmir. For this reason too, India has no problem joining the SCO.

SCO support with conditions

India supports the SCO, but without any conditions. Jaishankar has closely highlighted the group's core mission to fight terrorism. India has never explicitly mentioned Pakistan, but has warned against duplicity in thinking and behaviour on the issue. Modi, too, has emphasised the need to find a solution to the scourge of terrorism. He has also hinted at China's influence on UN sanctions against individuals linked to designated terrorist organisations in Pakistan.

India's strategy in view of connectivity

India recognises the importance of connectivity within the SCO. India is of the clear view that such initiatives must respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of member states. This is particularly important in the context of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor that passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). Interestingly, India is the only SCO member that refrains from supporting China's Belt and Road Initiative as it has refused to join the economic strategies proposed under the SCO framework due to alleged Chinese dominance.

Will Prime Minister Modi visit Islamabad?

As the date of the SCO meeting approaches, the Indian government has to take a crucial decision on whether to go or not. The Ministry of External Affairs has confirmed Modi's invitation but has refrained from making any statement about his possible attendance. If Jaishankar attends, as he did at the meeting in Bishkek last year, a bilateral meeting with his Pakistani counterpart is likely. However, it is important to note that during his visit to Goa last year, Jaishankar met Bhutto Zardari without any formal bilateral meeting.

Pakistan has become weak in every way

G. Parthasarathy, former Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan, believes that Jaishankar should go ahead with the meeting of heads of government, but any decision about bilateral discussions should depend on the prevailing circumstances. Currently, Pakistan is facing severe economic difficulties, lacking both internal and external financial stability. It is also facing disappointed hopes of the Taliban returning to power in Afghanistan. Islamabad's diplomatic relations with Gulf countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have also turned towards India, reducing its influence in the region.

Pakistan has wrong expectations from India on Jammu and Kashmir

The Indian government is concerned about the recent terrorist incidents in Jammu and any attempt to disrupt the upcoming elections in the region, leading Modi to warn Pakistan against using terrorism and proxy war. Jaishankar reiterated that India will respond dynamically to both positive and negative changes in relations with Pakistan.

At the same time, it is important to understand that Pakistan sees its invitation to Modi not just as a gesture of goodwill but also as a hope that India will reverse its 2019 decision to revoke the special status of Jammu and Kashmir so that any meaningful dialogue can begin. From India’s perspective, the main issue is Pakistan’s continued support for cross-border terrorism.

Now assembly elections are going to be held in Jammu and Kashmir. The Indian government may soon restore the full statehood status of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan says that these steps cannot take away the right of self-determination of the people of Jammu and Kashmir. However, many people find it baseless to demand more from India on this front. The Indian government has maintained its tough stand. Its argument is that there is only one issue left for discussion, that is Pakistan's illegal occupation of a part of Kashmir.

There is a ceasefire, but relations have not improved

There has not been enough bilateral contact between India and Pakistan since the failed attempt to restart the dialogue in 2015. Although a ceasefire was successfully negotiated on the Line of Control in 2021, it could not be re-established. The main reason for this is Pakistan's expectations regarding Kashmir which can never be fulfilled. It was hoped that the return of the Sharif brothers to power in Pakistan could reduce tensions with India. However, concrete progress in this direction is still a mirage. Therefore, there is no ray of hope in the current environment.