New Delhi: After the seven phases of Lok Sabha elections are over, now everyone's eyes will be on the results to be declared on June 4. However, some exit polls are also conducted before the results. In which it is told which party is winning this time. Many times, exit poll results and actual results are quite similar. However, sometimes the results turn out to be the opposite. Because of which many people believe in exit polls and some do not. In such a situation, today we are going to tell you what is an exit poll and how are the results obtained through it?
- What is exit poll?
Exit poll is a type of election survey which is conducted on the day of voting. In this, voters who have come out to vote are asked which party or candidate they have voted for. By analyzing the data thus obtained, it is estimated what the election results will be. In India, the Election Commission has banned the broadcast of exit poll results on the day of voting. However, this ban does not apply to exit polls broadcast after voting.
- When are exit polls conducted?
After voting, voters are asked outside the polling stations which party or candidate they have voted for. By analyzing the data thus obtained, it is estimated what the election results will be. For example, if an election has two phases, the exit poll is usually released after the second phase. However, in some cases, exit polls may be released even after the first phase of voting. For example, if an election has two phases and turnout in the first phase is very low, the results of exit polls can help predict the outcome of the second phase.
- Where and when was the first exit poll conducted?
The first exit poll was conducted in the United States in 1936. George Gallup and Claude Robinson conducted an election survey in New York City, asking voters which presidential candidate they voted for. By analyzing the data thus obtained, it was predicted that Franklin D. Roosevelt would win the election. Roosevelt actually won the election, but the results of the exit poll influenced the election results. Exit polls then became popular in other countries as well. The first exit poll was conducted in Britain in 1937. The first exit poll was conducted in France in 1938.
- When was the first exit poll conducted in India?
Exit polls in India started in 1996. It was done by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS). In this exit poll, it was estimated that Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win the Lok Sabha elections. Actually BJP won the election, but the exit poll results influenced the election results. After this the trend of exit polls increased in India. In 1998, for the first time a private news channel broadcast an exit poll. Nowadays, there are many exit polls in India, which are conducted by different agencies.
- How different is exit poll from opinion poll?
Exit polls are conducted on the day of polling. Voters who go out to vote are asked which party or candidate they voted for. The data thus obtained is analysed to predict what the election results will be. Opinion polls are conducted before the election. These can include everyone, whether they are voters or not. They usually ask which party or candidate people are planning to vote for. Both exit polls and opinion polls can be useful tools, but they also have limitations. Exit polls are not always accurate, as voters can change their opinion after voting. Opinion polls are also not always accurate, as voters can change their opinion before the election.
- What are the rules regarding exit polls?
In India, the Election Commission has made some rules regarding exit polls. The purpose of these rules is to prevent voter fraud or influencing the electoral process. Exit poll results cannot be broadcast on the day of voting. To broadcast the exit poll results after voting, the survey agency will have to take permission from the Election Commission. While broadcasting the exit poll results, the survey agency must clearly state that these results are only estimates.
- How accurate are exit polls in India?
The percentage of accuracy of exit polls in India usually ranges between 80% and 90%. However, in some cases exit polls are not very accurate. For example, in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, exit polls predicted that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would win 280 to 300 seats. However, the BJP actually won 282 seats. Exit polls can be a useful tool, but it is important to note that exit polls are not always accurate.
- Who issues guidelines on exit polls in elections?
The Election Commission keeps issuing guidelines regarding exit polls from time to time. These guidelines determine the methods and standards of exit polls. There are some controversies regarding exit polls. Some people believe that exit polls can influence voters in their electoral decision making. Others believe that exit polls are contrary to the democratic values of the electoral process.
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