Donald Trump is the most favourite candidate to become the next President of America. This is because Biden has given a surprising performance in the TV debate between Joe Biden and Trump. After the TV debate, Trump's lead over Biden has increased in opinion polls in key swing states. There is chaos in the Democratic Party, many people are demanding Biden to step down and make another candidate (possibly Kamala Harris) the Democratic candidate in the US elections to be held in November.
It will have an impact on the whole world
What will a second Trump term mean for India? The man is so impulsive and unpredictable that no one can be sure what he will do. However, he has spoken of revolutionary changes that will affect not just the US but the entire world. First, he will immediately withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate change. He will promote oil drilling everywhere. This will eliminate the possibility of stopping climate change. It will affect everyone. Global finance for green projects in developing countries may decline.
PressNews24 provides latest news, bollywood news, breaking news hollywood, top tech news, business standard news, indian economy news, world economy news, travel news, mumbai news, latest news mumbai loksabha election 2024, video viral news, delhi news, Only at PressNews24.in
Stopping India-Pakistan trade leads to smuggling of billions of dollars, who will benefit if trade resumes? All eyes on Modi and Sharif
Strong countries will dominate weak countries
Second, Trump is reluctant to get involved in wars anywhere. He could withdraw from or stop supporting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), a cornerstone of global security since World War II. This would have implications for Ukraine, which could succumb to Russia. It would encourage military adventures by strong countries against weak ones everywhere. China could become even more aggressive along its Himalayan border with India. We have already seen that a small group like the Houthis can block all traffic in the Red Sea despite the efforts of the most powerful navies. If superpowers wash their hands of conflicts in far-flung countries, such groups and the damage they cause could multiply.
In Trump's new world, we may have different tariffs and trade rules for each country or regional group. Trump's attitude may lead China to believe that this is the best time to attack and occupy Taiwan.
Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar, author
will have an impact on world trade
This will not be conducive to global trade and investment, impacting all economies, including India. Trump's stance could convince China that this is the best time to attack and occupy Taiwan. Whatever the outcome, it will be disastrous for Asia and India. Japan and Korea could react quickly by building nuclear weapons, as they can no longer rely on the US defence umbrella. Saudi Arabia and Iran could also build nuclear weapons. There will now be many more fingers on the nuclear trigger.
Why is America so angry with Modi's visit to Russia? It is threatening, Putin is in trouble
Threat of tariff from America!
It seems Trump is going to impose a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on imports from China. He also supports tax cuts and subsidies for key industries. This will, inevitably, lead to retaliation from others. After this, Trump will threaten even more US tariffs. A global trade war is looming. The world's existing trade structure, painstakingly built up since World War II through the GATT and the World Trade Organization (WTO), could be ruined. Many countries violate this or that WTO rule, but it still provides an orderly global structure. Alas, Trump's destruction is in sight.
US Presidential Election: What happens if 81-year-old Joe Biden withdraws from the election race?
Fear of return of Great Depression
Analysts fear a return to the Great Depression of the 1930s. At that time, everyone resorted to protectionism. Starting with the US, every country imposed high tariffs or devalued its currency to reduce imports and increase exports. They failed to understand that one country's imports are another country's exports, and if everyone reduces imports, they will inevitably reduce exports too. Trade fell further, making the depression even worse. Competitive protectionism became a game in which everyone lost. To avoid such disasters, after World War II the US helped create international institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and eventually the WTO. The new arrangement was astonishingly successful, and the world enjoyed the fastest growth in history.
US Presidential Election: Will Indian-origin Kamala Harris challenge Donald Trump, will Biden withdraw from the election race?
WTO will face a new setback!
But memories of the Great Depression have faded. There is growing demand for protectionism everywhere. Trump, who in his first term sidelined the WTO because its rules hurt the US, could deal it a fresh blow. Like US politicians of the 1930s, they think they can make America great again by raising tariffs and subsidising US companies. They ignore the impact of retaliation by others. Under WTO rules, tariffs imposed on one country apply to all. In Trump's new world, we may have different tariffs and trade rules for every country or regional bloc, depending on the negotiations. India may have to negotiate trade and investment rules with every different trading partner or bloc.
India-China: How will India become self-reliant? Our dependence on China has increased rather than decreased
Possibility of dispute in global trade
This could also mean that there would be dozens of different Indian tariff rates for the same product depending on the exporter. This would create immense potential for misinvoicing, corruption and endless legal disputes. Such a fragmented world would lead to huge uncertainties that would harm global investment, trade and economic growth. I have sketched out the worst-case scenario. The actual outcome could be better. But understanding how bad it could be will inform our own contingency planning in a new world. As the old saying goes, hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
