When the Soviet empire collapsed after the Cold War, highly skilled people became unemployed. This caused a huge loss. Russian sports coaches, pilot instructors, engineers and scientists started to migrate and soon skilled Russian workers spread across the country. Now imagine what happened to the Bahujan Samaj Party, the voice of Dalits and the school of social engineering. What happened is quite clear – at least 10 of the 37 MPs who won on Samajwadi Party tickets in the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh have roots in the BSP and at least six of the losing candidates were former BSP leaders. Now the sub-classification of castes within the Dalit category threatens to derail Dalit politics in UP. Both the BSP and the SP have rejected it. The BSP wants to re-establish itself as the champion of Dalit unity.
Is it too late or can Mayawati's BSP come back on track? In the Lok Sabha elections in UP, the Akhilesh Yadav-led SP won 37 out of 80 seats. Earlier in January, the Ram temple in Ayodhya was inaugurated. Prime Minister Narendra Modi became the host of the Pran Pratishtha program of Ram Lalla's idol there. How did the SP win the Lok Sabha elections held in this background? The answer to this is a combination of the mobilization of Mandalists, clever selection of candidates, Rahul Gandhi's growing credibility among the lower sections of the society and the exchange of votes between the SP and the Congress.
As JNU sociologist Vivek Kumar put it, “The Congress and Rahul’s promise of social justice and the potential threat to the Constitution from the return of the Modi government created a sense of insecurity among Dalits.” He adds, “Dalits were Congress voters for a long time until the rise of parties like the BSP.”
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But for some invisible reason, there was a continuous exodus of talent from BSP to SP, especially after the 2022 UP assembly elections. Mayawati had almost surrendered in the last few years. She had challenged the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections along with the SP. This is reminiscent of the slogan that emerged from the alliance of backward castes after Ayodhya, 'Mile Mulayam-Kanshiram, Hawa Mein Ud Gaye Jai Shri Ram'.
But the election results did not come as expected and Mayawati left no stone unturned to break the alliance. She cited lack of vote transfer from SP to BSP, but many say that in fact there was pressure from central agencies on opposition leaders. BSP became inactive. In 2022, the party got only one seat in the 403-seat assembly. This confirms that 'Behanji' has lost in the electoral field.
With Ambedkar in their hearts and minds and Kanshi Ram's book in their hands, the marginalised began to look for new possibilities as the BSP lost momentum. Incidentally, the socialist camp, which had been defeated by the BJP twice, was facing turmoil in the same period. The BJP had launched its own social engineering, using venomous communal appeals to polarise the majority Hindus. On the other hand, there was an 'anti-Yadav' mobilisation, which alienated the 'most backward' from the alleged OBC solidarity. Ironically, the BJP wooed the upper castes and the most backward classes who were opposed to Mulayam Singh Yadav's Muslim-Yadav alliance. The move expanded the BJP's support base to a level that was difficult to match with any caste-religious equation.
In such a situation, the unemployed workers of BSP and the worried strategists of SP naturally came together. With the BSP workers moving to SP, Dalits, extremely backward and Muslims at the grassroots level also came together. BJP insiders believe that its newly built OBC base got shaken in 2022. Sections of major communities moved towards SP, which got 111 seats as against 47 in 2017.
With the disintegration of BSP, a part of Dalit voters came to the BJP's camp. In some important areas, some OBCs and some Dalits filled this gap. This led to BJP's victory in 2022. Akhilesh strengthened the base of Yadavs, Kurmis, Lodhs, MBCs, Muslims and Dalits, so the weaknesses could not be overcome. This is why SP came alive again. This pattern worked for BJP in other states as well. In many states, BJP increased its voter base by bringing leaders from Congress.
Take Lalji Verma for example. He had moved from SP to BSP during Kanshi Ram's time, reunited with Akhilesh ahead of the 2022 elections and SP won all five assembly constituencies in Ambedkar Nagar, a BSP stronghold. With Lalji Verma winning on an SP ticket, Ambedkar Nagar is no longer a BSP stronghold.
Kanshi Ram's associate RK Chaudhary, who broke away from Mayawati and joined the SP, has won from Mohanlalganj, which is a safe seat. He says, 'BSP workers are looking for a movement that reflects Kanshi Ram's values.' Chaudhary says that the irony is that 20 years ago there was Kanshi Ram's movement, but its supporters were less. Now when the people prepared by him have stood up on the strength of the Constitution and democratic values, there is no one to lead.
In that empty space, Akhilesh's PDA (Backward, Dalit, Minority) came in. Chaudhary says, 'Kanshi Ram had changed PDA to 'Bahujan Samaj'. This base is Akhilesh's PDA block today. According to Chaudhary, about 40 percent of BSP cadre voted for SP, most of whom were Dalits, although SP did not make much effort to reach out to them. He says, 'Many Kanshi Ram's people like me are in SP. We will bring more BSP workers to SP.'
The army of BSP workers is a huge force. The workers are district and village level 'soldiers' who are trained to go to the settlements every day and perform songs and plays to instill a sense of pride in the people and connect them with the Bahujan movement.
Others are also eyeing the BSP vote bank. Bhim Army chief Chandrashekhar Azad, the newly elected MP from Nagina Lok Sabha seat, from where the BSP began its march in western UP, has added 'Kanshi Ram' to the name of his Azad Samaj Party in an attempt to woo disheartened BSP supporters.
But Vivek Kumar rubbishes reports of the BSP's demise. He argues that this shift in Dalit votes could be temporary. “Parties like the BSP, born out of social movements, never die. Their fortunes fade. The BSP too faces the same fate, yet it enjoys the loyalty of a large social group,” he said. Dalit politics is clearly in a state of flux.