India is stronger than China for mediation in Russia-Ukraine, know what is the big reason

Putin took the name of India

Putin said, “Are we ready to negotiate with them (Ukraine)? We have never refused to do so, but not on the basis of some short-term demands, but on the basis of the documents that were agreed upon and actually started the negotiations in Istanbul.” Putin further said that he is in constant touch with India, China and Brazil regarding the Ukraine war. He said that these countries are making sincere efforts to resolve the military conflict that has been going on for more than two years. His remarks came days after the conclusion of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine. There is speculation that New Delhi may help start a new dialogue between Moscow and Kiev.

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What are the experts saying

Global affairs experts say that India has an edge over China in terms of peacemaking. This is because New Delhi is a relatively 'fair player' compared to Beijing. Shari Malhotra, Associate Fellow for Europe at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), strongly believes that India has better chances than China in terms of mediating or establishing peace on the Ukraine war. She said that this is because India is a relatively fair player compared to China. India signed a No-Limit Partnership with Russia in February 2022, just before Moscow started the war. China is also assisting Russia's war efforts by supplying dual-use items.

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India, on the other hand, has close ties with both Russia and the West, which is assisting Ukraine's war efforts. Therefore, it can play the role of a bridging power. Malhotra says that comparatively, China's currently fractured relations with Western countries – strategic rivalry with the United States, and the EU's attempt to re-arrange its relations with China make it a less reliable mediator. She also highlights India's consistent position on the war as it is calling for dialogue and diplomacy, advocating for peace. India is urging countries to return to the negotiating table.

They concluded that effective mediation is possible only if both sides genuinely want it and are committed to a peace initiative, which appears unlikely at the current juncture of the conflict. Nevertheless, India can continue to play an active role at the margins and reiterate its willingness to play the role of a peace-maker, they said.

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How does India have an edge over China?

At the same time, India has made it clear that it does not tolerate violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty, Malhotra said. Therefore, if India attempts to mediate, it will be taken more seriously than China based on India's overall stance on the war. However, she points out that this is not the right time for mediation or negotiations as both sides have not yet reached a point of exhaustion in the war. Malhotra stressed that Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region has changed the situation. The approaching US elections and their results can also play a major role in changing the dynamics and trajectory of this war.

Will Putin give preference to India over China?

Moreover, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia Daily that India can help establish a dialogue on Ukraine. Underlining the 'highly constructive, even friendly relations' between Modi and Putin, he said the Indian Prime Minister 'can play a leading role in obtaining first-hand information from the participants in this conflict'. One of the reasons for this is that he communicates freely with Putin, Zelensky and the Americans. Prime Minister Modi visited Moscow in July this year. During that time he told Putin that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. This was followed by a visit to Kiev in August. During this visit he reiterated India's willingness to contribute in every possible way to facilitate an early return to peace. On his return, Modi spoke to Putin. He conveyed India's readiness to actively support any political or diplomatic solution.

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Modi has already asked Ukraine for mediation

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Prime Minister Modi's reconciliation with Putin, his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky and the US has given India a great opportunity to exert its weight in world affairs, to use its influence. This will inspire the people of the US and Ukraine to use more political will and move forward on the path of a peaceful solution. Peskov also said that there are no 'specific plans' for Modi's mediation on this issue. The Kremlin spokesman said that at the moment they are hardly present, because we do not see any preconditions for talks right now. Modi visited Ukraine on 23 August. There he told Zelensky that both Ukraine and Russia should sit together without wasting time to end the war. India is ready to play an 'active role' to restore peace in the region.

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Is Modi's popularity an important factor?

With an approval rating of 78% in India, Modi emerged as the world's most popular political leader earlier this year, according to a survey report released by US business intelligence company Morning Consult. He surpassed outgoing US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, who had approval ratings of 37% and 23% in their respective countries. PM Modi has returned to power for the third time.

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A CNN report in March said that Modi played a key role in preventing a nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022. Russia denied this, while India neither confirmed nor denied it. Moreover, Modi's friendship with the Russian President is known around the world. At an event in Moscow in June 2023, Putin described PM Modi as a 'big friend' of Russia. He said that his 'Make in India' campaign has had a 'really impressive impact' on the country's economy.

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Modi was one of the few international leaders who had congratulated Putin on his re-election in March this year after he won a landslide victory in a highly uneven election, further consolidating his already firm grip on power. Modi had said he and Putin agreed to work together to further deepen and expand the India-Russia special and privileged strategic partnership in the years to come. While discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Modi reiterated India's consistent position in favour of dialogue and diplomacy as the way forward, a statement from the External Affairs Ministry had said.

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During the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan last year, Prime Minister Modi told Putin that the 21st century is not the “age of war”. Moreover, India has abstained from Ukraine-related resolutions and votes at the United Nations more than half a dozen times.

What is India's stand?

India has consistently said that it will not initiate any peace process on its own. India will mediate only if it is asked to do so. New Delhi has also stressed that lasting peace is possible only when both sides join any initiative. However, for India to play any role, it is important that Zelensky also agrees. During Modi's visit, he had suggested that India could consider hosting the next peace summit, but then he effectively ruled India out as he insisted that only a country that had endorsed the joint communiqué at the first summit could host. India did not participate in the first summit, held in Switzerland in June, as Russia was not invited.