Delhi or Beijing…where can talks take place to prevent war between Russia and Ukraine?

Russia ready to talk about war with Ukraine

Addressing the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on September 5, Putin said that the agreements that could not be implemented during the talks held in Istanbul in March 2022 could form the basis for future peace talks. “Are we ready to negotiate with them (Ukraine)? We have never refused to do so, but not on the basis of some temporary demands, but on the basis of the documents that were decided in Istanbul and actually started,” Putin said.

India will help in ending the Russia-Ukraine war

He also said that he is in constant touch with India, China and Brazil regarding the Ukraine war. He said that these countries are making serious efforts to resolve the military conflict that has been going on for more than two years. Putin's statement came a few days after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Ukraine. This visit has increased speculation that New Delhi can help start new talks between Moscow and Kiev. Experts say that India has an upper hand over China in the matter of mediating in peace talks because New Delhi's stance is relatively more impartial than Beijing.

Will Putin give more preference to India than China?

Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestia newspaper that India can help start a dialogue on Ukraine. Emphasising on the friendship between Modi and Putin, he said the Indian prime minister can play a leading role in getting information directly from the parties involved in the conflict as he holds frank talks with Putin, Zelensky and US leaders.

PM Modi's diplomacy will work

Prime Minister Modi visited Moscow in July this year, where he told Putin that the conflict cannot be resolved on the battlefield. He then visited Kiev in August, during which he reiterated India's willingness to contribute in every possible way to an early return to peace. On his return to India, Modi spoke to Putin and conveyed India's readiness to actively support any political or diplomatic solution.

Kremlin spokesman Peskov said that Prime Minister Modi's relations with Putin, his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky and the US provide India with an excellent opportunity to exert pressure and use its influence in global affairs to push the US and Ukraine to use greater political will and move forward on the path of a peaceful solution.

What is India's stand?

India has consistently maintained that it will not initiate any peace process alone and will mediate only if it is asked to do so. New Delhi has also stressed that lasting peace is possible only when both sides join any initiative. However, for India to play any role it is important that Zelensky also agrees to this. During Modi's visit Zelensky had suggested that India could consider hosting the next peace summit but then he refused India's offer to host it, insisting that only a country that had endorsed the joint communiqué at the first summit could host.

How much impact will Modi's popularity have?

Earlier this year, Modi emerged as the world's most popular political leader with a 78% approval rating in India, according to a survey report released by US business intelligence company Morning Consult. He surpassed outgoing US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron, who had 37% and 23% approval ratings respectively in their respective countries. A CNN report in March said Modi played a key role in preventing a nuclear attack by Russia on Ukraine in 2022. While Russia has denied this, it has neither been confirmed nor denied by India.

Apart from this, Modi's friendship with the Russian President is well known around the world. At an event in Moscow in June 2023, Putin described Prime Minister Modi as a great friend of Russia and said that his 'Make in India' campaign has had a really impressive impact on the country's economy. Modi was also among the few international leaders who congratulated Putin on his re-election in March this year. Putin had registered a spectacular victory in the election, further strengthening his already strong grip on power. A statement issued by the Ministry of External Affairs said that while discussing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Modi reiterated India's consistent stand in favor of dialogue and diplomacy. During the SCO summit in Uzbekistan last year, Prime Minister Modi told Putin that the 21st century is not an era of war. Apart from this, India has abstained from resolutions and voting related to Ukraine in the United Nations more than half a dozen times.

What do the experts say?

Shayari Malhotra, Associate Fellow for Europe Affairs at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), believes that India has better chances than China in mediating or brokering peace in the Ukraine war. This is because India is a relatively neutral player compared to China, which signed an unlimited partnership with Russia in February 2022, just before Moscow started the war. China is also aiding Russia's war efforts by supplying dual-use items. India, on the other hand, has close ties with both Russia and the West, which is aiding Ukraine's war efforts and hence India can play the role of a bridging power.

At the same time, India has been supporting peace and calling for dialogue and diplomacy. Malhotra further says, India has made it clear that it does not accept the violation of territorial integrity and sovereignty. Therefore, if India attempts mediation, it will be taken more seriously than China based on India's overall stance on the war. However, the current time is not conducive for mediation or dialogue as the two sides have not yet reached that point in the war. Ukraine's invasion of Russia's Kursk region has changed the situation. The upcoming US elections and their results can also play a major role in changing the dynamics and trajectory of this war.