The BJP's vote share has fallen since last time. The BJP's national vote share fell marginally from 37.3% in 2019 to 36.6% in 2024, but its number of seats fell by 63 from 303 to 240. That's less than half. In contrast, the Congress increased its vote share slightly from 19.5% last time to 21.2%, but that was enough to nearly double its number of seats from 52 to 99. How can such a small change in vote share make such a big difference in the number of seats? That's because the national vote share is an aggregation of states. A party might gain vote share in a state where its base is so small that it cannot win seats even if the votes are added up, while losing the same number of votes in a highly competitive state could cost it many seats.
There was no increase in the number of seats
The same has happened with the BJP this time too. For example, in Tamil Nadu, its vote share increased from 3.6% in 2019 to 11.2% this time, but this did not lead to any increase in its number of seats. Similarly, in Punjab, it increased from 9.6% to 18.6%, but due to lack of alliance, it was not enough to win any seat, so it lost two seats.
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There was damage in Bihar
On the other hand, in Bihar, a drop of almost three percentage points from 23.6% to 20.5% resulted in the BJP losing five seats. While in West Bengal, a drop of just 1.6 percentage points resulted in the BJP losing six seats. However, the most dramatic example was seen in Maharashtra, where the BJP's share fell from 27.6% to 26.2%, but this resulted in it getting less than half the seats than last time.
Congress seats increased
Talking about the Congress, its vote share in Maharashtra increased by less than one percentage point, from 16.3% to 17.1%. This increased its number of seats from one to 13. Its vote share in Rajasthan increased from 34.2% to 37.9%. Its vote share in UP increased from 6.3% to 9.5%, increasing its number of seats from one to six.
A new picture of equations has emerged, Akhilesh Yadav has drawn a bigger line than Mulayam in UP, SP is the third largest party in the country
SP's vote share increased
The third largest party, SP, won its largest ever 37 seats in the Lok Sabha, increasing its vote share from 18% to 33.5%. With Congress' 9.5%, India Bloc's vote share in the state was 43%, giving it a close contest with the NDA. Last time, the SP-BSP alliance's 37.3% was a far cry from the NDA's 50%-plus vote share. This is a dramatic narrowing of the gap that very few had expected in the absence of BSP from the opposition alliance, which was the game changer in UP.
